Unless governments, communities, property managers, and individual Canadians act, a new report by researchers at the University of Waterloo suggests heat-related deaths in Canada will double by 2080.
That's under its best-case scenario. Under its worst, it predicts those deaths will increase by 450 per cent over rates from the last half-century.
The report stresses governments need to recognize extreme heat events as natural disasters the same way it classifies flooding and wildfires. It says 17-million Canadians living in cities and towns are vulnerable, and Southwestern Ontario should anticipate some of the worst impacts.
In Windsor, "Irreversible Extreme Heat: Protecting Canadians and Communities from a Lethal Future" suggests between 2051 and 2080, the number of extreme heat days, those with temperatures over 30 Celcius, could increase from the current 23 to 79 days a year under a high carbon model. Maximum temperatures will jump to 40 degrees, and the duration of heatwaves could be 9.8 days.
In comparison, between 1976 and 2005, Windsor's maximum temperature was 35 Celcius on average, and heat waves typically lasted four days maximum.
London could anticipate 61 days a year with temperatures over 30 Celcius and heat waves that last eight days.
The report did not provide projections for Chatham-Kent, Sarnia, or Leamington but did say those communities are also at risk.
Pavement on Hwy 3 in Tecumseh buckles in heat on July 15, 2018. Photo courtesy Gary McNamara/Twitter.
Not only are lives and the healthcare system at stake, but infrastructure like roads, railways, and bridges could fail in extreme temperatures while failing crops threaten food security. It also suggested cities that suffer the worst heat could see more crime as mental health and the economy suffer.
While air conditioning has helped Canadians weather the worst impacts of heat so far, it may offer less benefit in the years to come because it requires electricity. As demand grows during hot days, greenhouse gas emissions rise, and power grids could fail.
However, the Intact Centre for Climate Adaptation also said Canadians are not helpless in the face of rising temperatures. It points out that heat-related deaths are preventable, and adaptation is possible.
There is no doubt the document offers some dire predictions for the next six decades. It also recommends actions individual Canadians, property owners, and communities can take. Some have already started to adapt.
Individual Canadians might consider using ceiling and portable fans more, improving home insulation, installing window coverings like shutters, and modifying living, working, and sleeping arrangements.
30 maple trees were planted as part of the Diamond Project in Durham. (Photo courtesy of the Diamond Project via Facebook)
Both individuals and communities can plant more trees, but cities and towns are encouraged to promote green roofs and building facades. Property managers can prompt apartment dwellers to create balcony gardens.
Municipalities can develop extreme heat emergency plans, extend opening hours at beaches, public pools, water parks, and cooling centres, and offer free public transportation to those locations that offer residents respite. Patrols could check on residents in disadvantaged neighbourhoods, and flexible hours might keep outside workers safe.