If you figured your age and good health would protect you from COVID-19's worst symptoms, think again.
Ontario Chief Medical Officer of Health Doctor David Williams and the co-chair of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table, Doctor Adelstein Brown, offered an overview Thursday morning of where the pandemic is headed.
"Since last Monday, we've seen an additional 7,226 cases of COVID-19," said Williams. "Today, we're reporting 2,557, and that's the highest we've had for quite a while."
Brown told reporters there is no doubt Ontario is in the third wave of the pandemic, and the more infectious and deadly U.K. variant is driving up case numbers. Over the past week, those cases have increased 34 per cent. Labs have confirmed 2,116 cases of that strain but detected 22,371 others where that or another variant was detected.
While testing for the virus has remained relatively flat, the number of positive test results has almost doubled, from 2.8 per cent to 4.4 per cent.
"Younger Ontarians are ending up in hospital. Risk of ICU admission is two-times higher, and the risk of death is one-and-a-half times higher for patients who are infected with the B.1.1.7 variant," he said. "This is not only a more transmissible disease; it is a more dangerous disease."
Brown added the risk of asymptomatic transmission is two-and-a-half-times higher than it is with the strain responsible for the first and second waves.
As of Thursday, there were 1,116 people with COVID-19 in hospitals across Ontario, and of them, 464 patients were in intensive care units across Ontario. That compares with 150 in ICUs in mid-December, the last time the province locked down.
"Our healthcare system -- is under stress, considerably," said Williams.
Should admissions rise to 800, he warned doctors in Ontario may be faced with the grim prospect of choosing which patients will receive that level of care and which will not.
Ontario is vaccinating between 60,000 and 80,000 people daily, but he would like to see that increased to over 100,000. He called on the province to not only step up its rate of vaccinations but fine-tune who gets the shot.
"Older age groups are being vaccinated more, which is what we wanted to see, but we are not vaccinating more in the highest risk communities," said Brown pointing to those who live in high-density housing and essential workers.
It is both Brown's and William's opinion that if the province vaccinates more at-risk people and implements a lockdown, the curve could begin to bend downward within weeks.
However, it would also depend on co-operation from the public.
"It is not to be taken lightly, and so you have to be very careful about your personal behaviour no matter what level you are in now -- you still have to be personally vigilant," stressed Williams.
Unlike past briefings, Williams and Brown refrained from offering projected case and death counts but emphasized what Ontario residents do now will decide what kind of summer they will have.
Thursday's briefing is based on four separate models exploring three to five scenarios each. They ranged from how the pandemic will play out with no intervention to implementing a stay-at-home order coupled with increased vaccination. Over 120 scientists across Ontario support the findings.