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Windsor

Ontario projected to hit 6,500 COVID-19 cases per day in December

While the number of daily COVID-19 cases hit record highs this week in Ontario, new projections show that they could quadruple by mid-December.

According to new COVID-19 modelling released on Thursday by the Ontario government's science advisory table, if cases grow at a rate of five per cent, the province could see 6,500 new daily cases of the virus by December 13.

The positivity rate in Ontario is currently four per cent.

Should Ontario hit the five per cent rate of growth, the province's case numbers will likely exceed several jurisdictions in Europe that are now in some form of lockdown, according to the government's data.

Even if COVID-19 cases only grow at a rate of three per cent, the province is still projected to see twice as many infections at 3,300 cases per day.

In either scenario, ICU occupancy is expected to exceed the 150-bed threshold within the next two weeks and could exceed 400 beds within six weeks.

The projected surge of cases comes on the same day provincial officials logged 1,575 new cases on Thursday. This is the third straight day the province has set a new record high for daily cases. Ontario now has a seven-day new case average of 1,299.

The current number of daily cases exceeds the province's previous projections which forecasted 1,200 COVID-19 cases per day for November.

Ontario’s total number of cases since January is now 89,784.

Eighteen deaths were reported Thursday, increasing the death toll in Ontario to 3,293

- With files from Miranda Chant  

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