Canada's public health agency says progress is being made toward flattening the curve of COVID-19.
Federal health officials released updated coronavirus projections at a media conference Tuesday afternoon in Ottawa. While Canadians are still dying from the novel coronavirus, the Public Health Agency of Canada said there are signs that the country is headed toward a best-case scenario.
Federal Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Theresa Tam said the number of cases across Canada is levelling off but physical distancing and other preventive measures must remain in place for the curve to truly flatten.
"We must absolutely remain vigilant and continue our public health measures," said Dr. Tam. "By achieving epidemic control, we expect that only a small proportion of the population will be immune... until there is a vaccine in place, we have to plan to live with a manageable level of COVID-19 activity."
According to the projections discussed, the latest nationwide estimate for COVID-19 cases is between 53,000 and 67,000 by May 5. The latest projection of nationwide fatalities is between 3,700 and 3,900.
Case-doubling is now at a rate of 16 days across the country as well. Before, the rate was as low as three days.
However, had there not been controls in place, up to 80 per cent of Canada's population could have been infected, and roughly 355,000 Canadians could have died.
The key is the slowing of the infection rate, according to Dr. Tam. At the time the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic, each infected person in Canada infected roughly 2.19 other people. Currently, that rate is just above one person, with the goal being to lower that rate to below one person.
Dr. Tam pointed out that the top priority of health professionals is to slow the infection rate down, while increasing the capacity of medical care. According to data provided, Canada's curve is showing signs of levelling off, and the rate is lower than those of China, Great Britain, and Italy.
Other points raised during the news conference included the fact that 740,000 Canadians have been tested for COVID-19 so far, with just seven per cent of those tests returning positive results. Eighty per cent of all cases in Canada have been in Quebec and Ontario. Seventeen per cent of positive cases have required hospitalization, and less than five per cent have required stays in the intensive care unit.
Ninety-five per cent of all adult deaths have been patients over the age of 60.
Dr. Tam said it is the perseverance of Canadians that will help put an end to the crisis.
"We are making clear progress to slow the spread and bring the epidemic under control, thanks to the commitment of Canadians," said Tam.