A graphic from Public Health Canada of COVID-19 cases across Canada April 9, 2020. (courtesy of Public Health Canada)A graphic from Public Health Canada of COVID-19 cases across Canada April 9, 2020. (courtesy of Public Health Canada)
Windsor

National pandemic projections depend on what we do now

The Public Health Agency of Canada is telling Canadians what they do now will chart the course for the COVID-19 pandemic in the coming weeks and months.

It released its national projections for the pandemic Thursday morning.

"Our healthcare systems across the country are coping for the time being," said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. "But, we're at a fork in the road."

Even with strong control measures such as social distancing in place, the agency's report said between 11,000 and 22,000 Canadians could die of COVID-19 in the coming months.

Without strong control measures, though, the death toll will be considerably higher. A graph included in the report predicts more than 350,000 deaths should 80 per cent of the population become infected.

The report anticipates by the end of next week, there will be more than 27,000 confirmed cases across the country.

Last Friday, Ontario released its projections for the pandemic, predicting between 3,000 and 15,000 deaths over the next 18 to 24 months.

Community transmission started later in Canada then it did in other countries, giving health officials time to learn from the experiences in Italy and Spain. As a result, the report said testing is higher per capita in Canada, and the increase in confirmed cases has been slower.

However, the report points out the pandemic is still in its early stages, and social distancing measures will be needed for weeks and months to come with a peak not expected until late spring or early summer. Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam has said Canadians should expect smaller waves of the virus after that.

"This will be the new normal until a vaccine is developed," said Trudeau. "That is so much better than what we could face -- if we do not rise to the challenge of this generation."

The federal government is investing in research to create a vaccine, but Trudeau has said it is at least a year away.

"Normality, as it was before, will not come back until we get a vaccine," he said. "But, once we get through this first wave, we will have developed both tools and habits that will allow us to be much more resilient."

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