Health officials in Windsor-Essex want the public to know they have a good handle on the current COVID-19 situation, but stress it could very quickly spiral out-of-control if the community does not do its part and self-isolate.
Sobering numbers were presented to local reporters in a briefing Sunday afternoon, as health officials offered their sternest warning yet.
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If the public does not follow self-isolation and self-distancing protocols, Windsor Regional Hospital CEO David Musyj said as many as 12,000 patients in the region could require treatment in the hospital. Musyj based his math on the assumption 60 per cent of the local population will contract the virus, a number he said reflected the experience of other regions.
David Musyj, CEO of Windsor Regional Hospital. Photo by Mark Brown/Blackburn News.
"So, when we say flatten that curve, we're trying to get that 60 per cent down to 50, 40, 30, 20. You've got to get it down, so you don't have that five per cent being a big number," said Musyj.
Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Wajid Ahmed, backed him up by saying if just one COVID-19 carrier refuses to self-isolate, they could put the entire community at risk.
"If they're out there, they are infecting other people -- they are putting other people's lives at risk," he said.
Sunday's news conference was also the first time health officials in the region admitted the community-transmission is taking place in Windsor-Essex, and the numbers of confirmed cases do not likely reflect how many people here have COVID-19.
The Chief of Staff at Windsor Regional Hospital, Dr. Wassim Saad, said most patients, about 80 per cent of those infected, will suffer mild or no symptoms and will not require medical treatment.
However, another 15 per cent of cases will need medical intervention, and less than five per cent will require a ventilator to survive.
They also warned a spike in the number of confirmed cases will come this week.
On Thursday, Musyj said there were 50 patients in his facility staff assumed had COVID-19, but because of delays in test results, were not counted among the region's confirmed cases. The results of half of those patients have come back now, and ten were positive.
Of those ten, two have since been discharged from the hospital and are quarantined at home. Another five are in stable condition in the hospital, and three are on ventilators in the intensive care unit.
Two patients at Erie Shores Healthcare were also transferred to the hospital in Windsor for care.
Between Windsor Regional Hospital and Erie Shores Healthcare, 28 patients in hospital care are assumed to have COVID-19 and are waiting for test results to confirm their diagnosis.
Musyj and Ahmed said the public should expect a significant increase in the number of confirmed cases this week as the results come back for those patients. The wait times for results should lessen considerably this week as the lab in London takes more swabs from Windsor-Essex.
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Meanwhile, area hospitals are preparing for a surge in cases. Windsor Regional Hospital is at 50 per cent capacity, while 60 per cent of beds at Erie Shores Healthcare are occupied. In Windsor, there are more than 300 beds put aside for COVID-19 patients. However, Musyj called that little comfort considering how fast the virus spreads and how quickly hospitals fill up.
He said the average hospital stay for a COVID-19 patient is about three weeks.