Flood outlook issued by Ausable Bayfield Conservation

The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority has issued a flood outlook message with forecasts of 25 millimetres of rainfall Sunday and Monday.

Rain is expected to move into the Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) watershed on Sunday (December 5, 2021) in advance of a strong low pressure system.

Forecasts for the ABCA watershed area are calling for the potential of 25 millimetres (mm) of rainfall beginning later in the day Sunday and lasting into Monday morning. With saturated ground conditions, a quick runoff can be expected.

Forecasts for the timing and rainfall totals show some variation but, based on current weather predictions and streamflow forecasts, significant flooding beyond the traditional low-lying flood plain areas is not expected. Should we receive more than the forecasted rainfall amounts, levels in watercourses may exceed bank-full conditions overnight Sunday and through Monday. Flows will remain above seasonal throughout next week.

Residents are reminded to use caution near all watercourses. Slippery and unstable streambanks, and extremely cold and fast-flowing water will combine to create hazardous conditions.

The approaching weather system is anticipated to bring with it a high wind event on Monday and, specific to shoreline municipalities, further messaging can be expected on Monday.

This message will remain in effect until 8:00 a.m. on Tuesday, December 7, 2021, unless local conditions warrant further updates. The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required.