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Pandemic could see 28M surgeries cancelled worldwide

More than 28 million surgeries worldwide, including nearly 400,000 in Canada, could be cancelled or postponed as a direct result of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a study that included a Western University researcher.

Janet Martin, an associate professor at Western’s Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, collaborated on a new study with researchers at England’s University of Birmingham, to come up with the massive projection.

Researchers used data from surgeons at 359 hospitals in 71 countries to determine 28.4 million elective surgeries, including 2.3 million cancer surgeries, could be cancelled this year. They based the figure on a 12-week period of peak disruption to hospital services due to COVID-19.

“This has never happened before on a global basis in an era where we have the volume of surgery we have today,” said Martin. “Surgery is a critically important part of health care globally. This study was essential to define the global impact of surgical cancellations.”

The cancelled or postponed surgeries account for 72.3 per cent of all surgeries that were scheduled to be performed throughout the peak of the global outbreak. Orthopaedic procedures were deemed most likely to be cancelled with 6.3 million being put on hold over the 12-week period.

Modelling also showed that for each additional week of disruption to regular hospital services there would be 2.4 million more surgical cancellations.

In Canada, where most elective surgeries have been put on hold since mid-March, a total of 394,576 surgeries are projected to be cancelled. That figure includes 27,390 cancer procedures.

The backlog is expected to become so large, that researchers have determined even if the number of surgeries is increased by 20 per cent compared to pre-pandemic activity it will take Canadian hospitals 11 months to clear.

“The cancellations were necessary in order to ensure sufficient capacity for COVID-19 demand, and also to allow time to evaluate whether usual volumes of surgery could continue safely in the context of COVID-19 without risk of infection to patients," said Martin. "Understanding these numbers will help to prepare for post-peak-pandemic in order to start a plan for reopening elective surgery in a way that is safe and manageable.”

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