Hotter summer on the way says NOAA

(Photo courtesy © Can Stock Photo / Oakozhan)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. National Weather Service are predicting a warmer summer in southwestern Ontario this year.

The Climate Prediction Center in Maryland reported on Thursday that southwestern Ontario will have a good chance of hotter days over the next three months because of “elevated odds of above normal seasonal mean temperatures” in June, July, and August.

The agency also reported the west will see the highest likelihood of hotter temperatures across North America.

“The year as a whole for 2022 is very likely to rank among the 10 warmest years on record [in North America],” said Ahira Sánchez-Lugo, a climatologist with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

The precipitation outlook for southwestern Ontario this summer remains about the same as usual with normal amounts of rain expected in June, July, and August, said the NOAA.

Meanwhile, early projections from the NOAA indicate the western Lake Erie harmful algal bloom is expected to be less severe than last summer.

“With observations through May 22, we expect a bloom that is likely less severe than 2021 (<6) with a maximum range slightly above 6. If precipitation for the rest of the spring matches the early season forecast of near average rainfall, a smaller bloom, similar to 2020 (~3), is likely,” reported the NOAA. “While June and July are expected to have average rainfall, there is still uncertainty in the size of rain events. Larger rain events may produce larger TBP (total bioavailable phosphorus) loads, resulting in a severity closer to 2021 (~6).”

Exposure to harmful blue-green algae during swimming, wading, and water-skiing can lead to rashes and skin and eye irritation, and cause nausea and stomach aches.

The severity of the western Lake Erie algal bloom depends on input of total bioavailable phosphorus from the Maumee River between March 1, 2022 and July 31, 2022. TBP is the sum of dissolved phosphorus and the portion of particulate phosphorus available for algae bloom development.

The early season algae bloom projection gives an estimate of potential bloom severity based on measurements and forecasts of discharge from the Maumee River in Ohio and phosphorus loads from now through July.