The future for Chatham-Kent looks a little brighter than what was predicted three years ago in terms of population growth, new homes, and new jobs.
The municipality said it has been experiencing "significantly stronger" urban growth than previously anticipated in the 2019 review and population projections for Chatham-Kent are considerably higher than the previous population projections prepared by the Ministry of Finance. Chatham-Kent's population is now forecast to increase over the next three decades by an extra 13,300 people compared to the 2019 forecast. That's in direct contrast to the last decade which saw the population decline in the municipality.
The latest community development information report done for the municipality by consultant Watson and Associates showed that Chatham-Kent's population will climb to 122,200 by 2051. This now represents an annual growth rate of 0.46 per cent between 2021 and 2051 however, a 0.73 per cent annual growth rate is projected over the next 10 years.
"Due to the aging of the population, Chatham-Kent will be more dependent on net migration as a source of population growth as opposed to population growth from natural increase," wrote Watson and Associates.
The report also showed that the number of new homes built will increase by nearly four times over the next 30 years. The consultant reported that housing growth is forecast to average 280 new units annually until 2051, which represents faster growth than the historical average of 75 units a year achieved between 2001 to 2016. The data also showed 382 new units projected to be built over the next 10 years. That's a total of 8,470 new units built by 2051 and an additional 5,000 units by 2046 compared to what was forecast in 2019.
The number of jobs will also climb higher in Chatham-Kent. Forecasts showed that jobs will increase from 39,500 in 2016 to 46,200 in 2051 with most of the job growth (58%) concentrated in the commercial and industrial sectors. In total, this equates to an extra 3,200 jobs when compared to 2019 projections.
"Forecast employment growth within Chatham-Kent is expected across a range of sectors driven by the continued development of the regional and local economic base and steady local population growth," the report stated. "Work at home employees are also anticipated to comprise a growing share (16%) of the Municipality’s employment base."
The changing nature of work also has "broad implications" on the real estate market and how residential and non-residential development are planned within communities, according to the consultant.
"The economic impacts of COVID-19 on global economic output have been significant. Economic sectors such as travel and tourism, accommodation and food, manufacturing, and energy have been hit particularly hard," read the report. "On the other hand, many other employment sectors, particularly knowledge-based sectors, which are more adaptable to the current remote work environment have been less negatively impacted, and in some cases have prospered."