The harmful algae bloom in western Lake Erie is expected to be smaller than normal this summer, according to early projections released this week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The NOAA is an American scientific agency within the United States Department of Commerce that focuses on the conditions of the oceans, major waterways, and the atmosphere. It said discharge of water from the Maumee River in Ohio was below average in March and April due to lower than average rainfall, which led to less phosphorus runoff going into the warm and shallow lake in early spring.
"With data through May 23, the bloom is likely to be smaller than average, with severity expected to be [less than] < 5, no change from last week," said the NOAA in its weekly early season projection statement.
Data showed the toxic blue-green algae bloom will be about the same size as those in 2016, 2018, and 2020, but much smaller than the blooms of 2017 and 2019. The data also showed less phosphorous entering western Lake Erie until August than each of the previous two years. The agency said these projections will be updated with new data and weather models each week until the NOAA seasonal Lake Erie Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast, using measured spring phosphorus amounts and a more complete set of bloom models, is issued on June 30.
The severity of the western Lake Erie harmful algal bloom depends on input of phosphorus from the Maumee River between March 1 and July 31. The NOAA said the phosphorous gives an estimate of potential bloom severity based on a combination of measurements and forecasts of river discharge and phosphorus flow from now into July.
The NOAA warned there is still much uncertainty in the discharge and the total amount of phosphorous flowing into the lake in the long term because weather models were unsure about the exact amount of rain in May when data was collected, where it was going to fall, and the intensity of the rainfall. NOAA scientists anticipate normal rainfall levels to return in June and less uncertainty in the discharge of phosphorous.
Algal blooms have returned recently to once again taint western Lake Erie with unhealthy and sometimes toxic, green slime. In recent years, toxic algae blooms have led to several temporary “do-not-drink” warnings around the western Lake Erie basin. Contact with toxic algae can result in itchy, irritated eyes and skin. It can also produce headaches, fever, diarrhea, abdominal pain, nausea, and vomiting if the contaminated water is swallowed.
The governments of Canada and Ontario announced last week that they are investing more than $2.5 million to help farmers improve water quality and soil health in the Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair watersheds.