Erieau residents hoping to get more information on shoreline erosion have been given some sombre news -- the challenges they are facing now are "going to get worse."
On Wednesday afternoon, residents gathered at the Erieau fire station for one of several information meetings taking place this week that highlight findings in Phase 2 of the Shoreline Erosion Study taking place.
Experts in shoreline hazards, meteorology, climate change and coastal engineering design are undertaking the detailed two-phase study, which looks at the Lake Erie shoreline from Wheatley to Clear Creek and the impact that climate change is having on the shore.
The Lake Erie Study Team has completed the research portion of the work and the meeting on Wednesday was a chance for people to learn more about the findings. Unfortunately, the information may not have been what they were hoping to hear.
"The easiest way to summarize that is that all of the challenges that we're facing now in this community, they're going to get worse and they're going to happen more frequently," explained Geoscientist and consultant Pete Zuzek. "So this is really important information for us to use to start planning for a more resilient community in the future."
Using charts and images, Zuzek explained that due to climate change, within 60 years there will be little or no ice coverage on Lake Erie, something he described as a "game changer." He added that average winter temperatures by the end of the century in Canada are predicted to be around eight degrees higher. Zero ice coverage would result in about a 120 per cent increase in wave energy, which would double erosion rates. Without any intervention, approximately 300 homes on Talbot Trail would be impacted by erosion over the next 50 years, costing about $40 million in damage.
"An ice-free lake in the winter is going to bring waves as well as snowfall," he said. "So essentially the exposure is going to increase. Flooding and erosion risks are going to happen all year round."
When asked point blank by a resident what they can do to stop it, Zuzek explained it's a bit of a waiting game right now as the municipality waits to complete the study and look at the best options. For the short term solutions, he suggests people stay away from bluffs and naturalize them as much as possible. He also suggests that overall, people remain vigilant and keep track of any changes.
"The most important thing for people to do is to be aware and be vigilant," Zuzek said. "Pay attention to their properties, if you're on the high bluff environment, where erosion is an issue, you should be carefully monitoring your shoreline."
Zuzek explained they will be working with the municipality and local conservation authority to find a long-term solution. He presented some possible adaptation options including pushing back buildings or constructing protection methods in the water, most of which would be extremely costly and involve a large undertaking.
"Some of these are focused on engineering works and require earth fill and rocks and steel. Some of the approaches are more from a planning perspective. They might mean considering new zoning, or restriction to development in certain areas. There's a big toolbox of things that we want to look at," said Zuzek.
According to Thomas Kelly, CK's general manager of engineering services, there is currently no money set aside for completing some of the large scale projects Zuzek mentioned, however, the municipality has been in constant contact with senior level of government to look at funding options. As the study continues everyone involved will work through possibilities and then develop a report with recommendations on options and pros and cons of each option.
"Right now at this point in the study, we want to keep an open mind to the full range of options, put them all on the table, get feedback from the community, the municipality, and hopefully senior levels of government moving forward," said Zuzek."Then we start to hone in on what makes the most sense in different places."
Zuzek added that they are also taking a new approach to this study and working closely with the residents. During Wednesday's meeting residents were given an hour to come up with and share ideas for what they'd like to see done to help solve the dire problem.
"Unlike studies in the past where the consultant's do the work then they come to these meetings and the town halls and they tell everyone what the answers are, we want to turn that around with this study so we're working with them to co-develop and co-create solutions so they can take ownership in the ideas," said Zuzek.