A peer review of the Bluewater District School Board's accommodation strategy has found school closures in Bruce County are likely not justifiable.
County council conducted the peer review of the 2014 report by Watson and Associates, which is being used as the basis for two current ARC reviews, including Paisley and Chesley.
The review found the Watson report does not take into consideration the expected economic growth associated with the planned refurbishment of the Bruce Power site. The review recommends the school board update economic and demographic assumptions to include the Bruce Power project.
Metro Economics, which conducted the peer review along with SHS Consulting, also found the Watson report under-predicted enrolment for the review area that includes Paisley by more than 270 students for the 2016-2017 school year.
The peer review predicts the elementary schools within the current ARC review in Bruce County could reach capacity without closures in as little as three years, based on growth projections associated with the Bruce Power refurbishment.
The methodology used in the Watson report is also under fire, as the peer review states, "It is not at all clear how Watson develops its enrolment projections" within Bruce County or the ARC review area.
Warden Mitch Twolan says it's a red flag that board staff would allow an outdated document to be used as fact to help carve out a recommendation to close Paisley Central School and downsize Chesley District Community School to kindergarten to Grade 8.
"My concern is, how would a school board to allow this report [to] come to the trustees to make a decision on closing a school in the county and I find that very disturbing how that can happen," says Twolan.
Twolan says the peer review has been submitted to the board as part of the ARC review and for now, the county will allow the process to play out, urging Bluewater trustees to "make the right decision" and keep the schools open.