A new poll is suggesting that if the vote for the next mayor of London were held today, the winner would be Paul Cheng.
The runner-up to Mayor Matt Brown in the 2014 election has the support of 19.8% of respondents to the poll done by Mainstreet Research for the London Institute and sponsored by LiUNA Local 1059. Of those asked, 10.4% said they would vote for Brown, 8.5% threw their support behind Ward 6 Councillor Phil Squire, 4.7% said they would vote for former Police Services Board chair Paul Paolatto, and 4.4% indicated support for Ward 7 Councillor Josh Morgan, while just over 52% were undecided.
So far, only Brown, Cheng, and Paolotto have signalled their intentions to run in this fall's election. Candidates have to wait until May 1 to file their nomination papers.
Cheng's lead over Brown widened when the poll focused only on decided voters. Among respondents who have already determined for whom they will vote, Cheng leads Brown 41.7% to 21.7%. Squire is next with 17.4%R support, while Paolatto and Morgan have 9.6%.
"Our findings are that incumbent Matt Brown will be in serious trouble and has his work cut out for him going into the next election," Mainstreet Research says in a summary of the poll results. "Although Paul Cheng might be in the driver’s seat right now, it is still far too early to call him the favourite going into the election, as there is still both plenty of time and oxygen for other candidates – including Brown himself – to win the election in October."
With the use of ranked balloting set to debut in London in this fall's election, the poll also looked at how a ranked ballot election might play out, based on the responses of those that took part.
It found Cheng would meet the required 50% support to win the mayor's race by the third ballot.
As for the issues most London voters will be considering when they enter the ballot booth, the poll found jobs and the economy were the most pressing for 20.9%. Rapid transit was next at 20.6%, followed by property taxes (19.7%), leadership (14.6 %), infrastructure (13.9%), and poverty (10.2%).
A total of 1,018 adults were surveyed on January 11, 2018. The margin of error for the poll is plus/minus 3.07% the 95% confidence level.
The entire poll summary can be read here.